A Clear Lesson

Nick George, CFP®, ChFC®, CLU®
Apr 10
5 min read

I couldn't help but share some quick thoughts on yesterday's events.

Yesterday marked the third-best day in stock market history.

Let that sink in for a second.

We’re talking over 90 years of market data, roughly 24,000 trading days, and the S&P 500 saw one of its strongest rallies since 2008. Most investors haven't even experienced a day like yesterday, including me.

Out of those 24,000 trading days, that’s about a 1 in 8,000 shot.

And it happened without warning...in the middle of fear, pessimism, and market noise so loud you could barely think straight. But let's be clear...this doesn't mean the volatility is over. Probably far from it. Yesterday was a good day - but not a victory lap. The market is still well off its highs and giving up some of yesterday's gains as I type this. And it definitely doesn't mean the noise stops.

So what really happened here?

It was one of those weeks in markets where if you stepped away for a coffee, you might’ve missed about three headlines, a continued market selloff, the third-largest S&P 500 daily gain in history, and oh — interest rates briefly dipping before snapping right back.

Rates fell for what felt like 12 seconds... sorry mortgage lenders… tough week.

But the real story happened the day before.

On Tuesday, the bond market blew up. And I don’t mean fireworks...I mean interest rates, specifically the 10-year Treasury yield, spiked sharply higher in a short amount of time.

Why did this happen?

In simple terms… investors got nervous around inflation, global credit risks, and a menu of other concerns. And that triggered a tidal wave of bond selling.

And when there’s more selling than buying, bond prices fall… and interest rates rise.

It’s like a seesaw. When one side drops (prices), the other side (yields or rates) goes up.

Most of the time, bonds are the quiet, boring part of the market… in a good way. They tend to move slowly. But when they move violently, it’s a sign that something bigger is happening.

That’s basically the bond market’s way of pulling the fire alarm.

And here’s a fun fact that some may not know:

The bond market is massive, over $130 trillion globally, and is several times larger than the stock market.

Why does that matter?

Because rising rates impact everything… from borrowing costs for businesses, to mortgage rates for homeowners, to how stocks are valued.

When the bond market speaks loudly, you may want to listen.

And of those people listening? President Trump.

An interesting article in the Wall Street Journal this morning outlined how closely Trump was watching the market’s reaction.

He didn’t like what he saw.

Behind the scenes, he was meeting with CEOs, talking with advisors, and weighing the risk of sticking to his trade war stance versus the risk of causing a full-blown financial crisis. He made it clear that he was willing to take some economic pain… but not to that extent.

So the tariffs got paused.

And just like that… markets breathed a sigh of relief (with a veryyyy long exhale). I'll link the article at the end.

This wasn't necessarily about economic fundamentals. It was about pressure points. Ego management. Market psychology.

That’s the game sometimes.

I’m not saying it’s fair… far from it. And I’m certainly not calling Trump a hero here...it’s just how he operates. He plays a different game. Which is why calling his bluff isn't always the best strategy.

What's the lesson here?

The clear lesson is to be intentional about what voices you let into your mind. Every time markets get noisy… the same thing happens. Fear spreads fast.

Not to sound like a broken record here but we saw this in 2018. Remember Trump’s tariff headlines then? Markets dropped. Panic set in. Slowly but surely… things recovered.

Oh how quickly we forget.

(Does anyone remember the banking crisis in 2023? That was crazy. Anyways.)

I’m not saying tariffs aren’t worth worrying about. Historically, they’ve been bad news.

But at what cost does broadcasting constant fear come?

CNBC turns red. Twitter melts down. The panic cycle feeds itself.

And like Morgan Housel says:

“Pessimism sounds like someone trying to help you. Optimism sounds like a sales pitch.”

Haha… it’s so true.

But optimism, grounded in data and planning, is where wealth tends to grow. When the noise gets loud enough… people freeze. They miss chances to invest extra cash. They hesitate to rebalance. They get scared out of long-term plans. That can be far more costly than simply staying the course.

Final Thought

The market will keep doing what it does. Good days. Bad days. And decades that feel like they happen in a week.

You can’t control that. What you can control is your response. Time and patience have the best track record. And if you’re contributing regularly? Even better.

I would be remiss if I didn’t say… having a plan, clear goals, organized accounts, a process you trust… it matters.

Your job isn’t to outsmart the market.

Your job is to outlast it.

Cheers and happy Master's Weekend!

Wall Street Journal Article: Why Trump Blinked on Tariffs

It’s easy to feel stuck with money. It's harder to have clarity and a plan you trust. If that feels like something you've been missing - let's talk.

Schedule Your Free Consultation

Nick George CFP®, ChFC®, CLU®

Owner | CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® Practitioner

ClearMind Capital

The information presented in this article is for informational purposes and should not be intended as tax, accounting or legal advice, nor is it an offer or solicitation to buy or sell, or as an endorsement of any company, security, fund, or other offering. Please consult your legal, tax, or accounting professional regarding your specific situation. Investments involve risk and have the potential for complete loss. It should not be assumed that any recommendations made will necessarily be profitable.

The opinions expressed in any commentary posted on this site are solely those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of ClearMind Capital, LLC. These opinions are based on information available at the time of posting and are subject to change without notice. ClearMind Capital, LLC, does not commit to updating any posted positions or commentary to reflect subsequent developments. While the information and reasoning used to form these opinions are believed to be from reliable sources, ClearMind Capital, LLC, does not verify this information, and no guarantee is provided regarding its accuracy, completeness, or validity. ClearMind Capital, LLC, disclaims any and all liability for actions taken or not taken based on the content of this site. No warranty, express or implied, is given in connection with the content provided.

Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Center for Financial Planning, Inc. owns and licenses the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER®, and CFP® (with plaque design) in the United States to Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, Inc., which authorizes individuals who successfully complete the organization’s initial and ongoing certification requirements to use the certification marks.